Canadian Crop Outlook 2025: Prices, Yields, and Producer Margins

Over the past six months, grain and oilseed producers have faced a mix of challenges and opportunities. Global supply chain news, shifting U.S. trade policies, and unpredictable weather all played a role. Yet, prices have generally been stronger than expected. Since January’s outlook, crop margins have improved, although for many producers they remain close to breakeven levels.

Cash Prices Have Strengthened

For western canola producers, strong Canadian exports and new U.S. biofuel incentives are boosting demand. This trend supports both current and future prices.

As the 2024/25 crop year ends, influences beyond tariffs and geopolitics have become more important. Overall, cash prices have risen since January. While still below the highs of 2022, today’s levels remain well above long-term averages.

Global Market Shifts

The USDA’s July 2025 WASDE report lowered its forecast for both global wheat production and ending stocks. Lower crop expectations in Canada contributed to this outlook. Excluding China, wheat stocks remain at a nearly 20-year low. However, U.S. stocks are still well supplied, which keeps a lid on futures prices.

Soybean markets also remain well supplied worldwide. Yet, major changes are happening in the U.S. Biofuel policies are driving higher domestic crushing, with industrial use expected to exceed food consumption for the first time in history.

Corn production is forecast to rise this year, helped by Brazil’s large crop. At the same time, higher consumption should keep ending stocks stable year over year.

Prairie Crop Conditions

Prairie weather this year closely resembles last summer, although there are key differences. Satellite NDVI readings, which measure vegetation density, suggest average growth levels so far. Continued rainfall and cooler weather could support stronger yields than last year.

Some regions, however, are still battling drought. These areas are seeing challenges with both hay and grain crops. Feed quality and supply could become concerns this winter.

Ontario and Quebec: Delayed but Catching Up

Eastern producers faced very different conditions. Excess moisture at planting caused significant delays in both Ontario and Quebec. NDVI data confirmed weaker-than-usual crop development early in the season.

Since then, heat and rain have supported strong recovery. Corn and soybeans are now progressing toward normal development. Winter wheat also shows favourable conditions at harvest.

The next month will be critical. Weather during pollination will determine whether late-planted crops reach their potential. If conditions remain stable, yields could be average or even above average.

Crop Margins Improve With Yields

Revenue projections for 2025/26 crop rotations—canola/wheat in the west and corn/soybeans in the east—have improved compared to January. Stronger prices and stable costs are driving this outlook, while yield projections remain average.

Margins are higher than last year but still below the five-year average. For many producers, especially when factoring in land costs, returns are expected to be near breakeven. Actual results could improve if yields or marketing opportunities exceed current assumptions.

Bottom Line

The Canadian crop outlook for 2025 is more positive than last year. Despite regional challenges, cash prices are stronger and weather conditions have supported crop growth. The Prairies are seeing improved rainfall, while Ontario and Quebec crops are catching up after a slow start.

Although margins remain tight, the combination of stable costs, improved pricing, and average yields provides cautious optimism for producers across the country.

Originally written by Justin Shepherd; revised and adapted for this publication.