As if there weren’t enough uncertainties to navigate through, the world economy now has to deal with a new war in the Middle East. The resulting jump in commodity prices, if sustained, is largely positive for Canada, although there are offsetting factors which should not be discounted. We unpack all of that in this edition […]
After bringing down its overnight rate to 2.25% last October, the Bank of Canada suggested that its policy rate is now “at about the right level”. Markets have bought into the central bank’s argument, expecting no cuts to the policy rate through the whole of next year. We’re skeptical about that narrative given the significant […]
The Canadian economic outlook for 2025 is challenging. Canada’s GDP is expected to grow by only 1.1% this year, held back by the U.S. trade war and weak business investment. Exports are falling, productivity remains low, and structural issues continue to limit growth. Yet there is some good news. The Bank of Canada has room […]
Long term interest rates have been on the rise despite the Bank of Canada cutting its overnight rate twice so far this year, indicating that factors beyond the central bank’s policy rate are driving borrowing costs. In this report we highlight factors influencing Canadian long-term interest rates, which can be useful for the millions of […]
